Three Man Race: Who is the Best Quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft?
2/1/2011
Washington D.C. - By popular demand! Last year we ran an article that provided an in-depth analysis on the Sam Bradford & Jimmy Clausen
debate: Sam Bradford vs. Jimmy Clausen. We looked at a multitude of different factors, but mainly focused on statistics. By comparison, we
were able to conclude (logically) that Sam Bradford was the better QB in the 2010 draft class. By all accounts, our analysis was correct. Bradford
was drafted #1 overall and had a very successful rookie campaign. On the other hand, Jimmy Clausen struggled the entire season, prompting
Carolina to re-assess their quarterback situation.
The 2011 draft will showcase three high profile quarterbacks: Ryan Mallett (Arkansas), Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) and Jake Locker
(Washington). When we first started this article, we salivated over the idea of analyzing Andrew Luck, who many thought was the consensus
overall #1 draft pick. However, Luck decided to return to Stanford for his senior season. Although the 2011 draft will not showcase the next
"Manning," it will boast three of college football's premier players. Physically, all three have perfect attributes that represent the NFL prototype
Quarterback. See their measurements below. As a side note, we did not include Heisman Trophy winner, Cam Newton. Reason being, we
wanted to focus our analysis on QBs who have had at least two full seasons starting. By doing so, it allowed us to form a better and more
accurate comparison, statistically.
Production wise, there is variation but all three have proven to be solid performers. What separates each is their individual performances
against top ranked pass defenses, top 25 teams and completion percentages/ratings versus these opponents. From an analysis standpoint,
we will focus on two seasons: 2009-2010. This will allow drafthuddle.com to provide a more accurate depiction/analysis as all three
quarterbacks have started two full seasons for their respective programs. Let the debate begin!
Statistical Comparisons (Two Seasons):
Ryan Mallett - Arkansas
Blaine Gabbert - Missouri
Jake Locker - Washington
From a purely statistical stand-point, Mallett is by far more productive than the other prospects - while playing against arguably the best
defenses in the Country (SEC) - which will be quantified later in the article. For two consecutive seasons, Mallett led the SEC in both passing
yards and touchdowns. In fact, Mallet's touchdown to interception ratio (62 : 19) is almost the equivalent of both Gabbert (40 : 18) and Locker (38
: 20)) combined.
Mallett +1.
2009 - 2010 Statistics vs. Top Ranked Pass Defense Opponents:
For this section, we focused on defenses that ranked in the top 50 (Total) and isolated their pass defense and pass efficiency defensive
rankings. For obvious reasons we narrowed down the defensive rankings to the top 50 in order to capture the "best" defenses.
From the data we can show the following: (1) through two seasons, Mallett faced not only the tougher overall defenses, but tougher pass
defenses as well. Since 2009, Mallett has faced five top-10 ranked defenses, five top-10 pass defenses and four top-10 pass efficiency
defenses. Gabbert comes in second, having faced four total top-10 ranked defenses, while Locker faced a total of three top-10 teams. (2) Not
only has Mallett faced tougher opponents, but he has also been the most productive. Combined, Mallett has a TD to INT ratio of 26 : 12 vs
defenses ranked in the top-50. Locker's ratio is 16 : 12 and Gabbert's is 23 : 14; all while playing against weaker opponents. As we mentioned
before, when we first started this analysis, Luck was in the picture. When running a similar analysis, we found that Luck has never faced a
top-10 ranked defense while at Stanford. Just food for thought...
Aside from defensive rankings, we can also dive into performances against ranked teams in general. We took the weekly AP-BCS rankings
(Top 25) at the time each school was played (regular season only). See Chart Below. From 2009-2010, Arkansas and Ryan Mallett played a
total of ten (10) ranked opponents: twice against the #1 overall ranked team and six (6) times against teams that ranked in the top 10.
Washington and Jake Locker were second, playing a total of eight (Locker did not play vs. Oregon - #2 ranked team) ranked opponents in both
seasons. Missouri and Gabbert played a total of five (5) ranked opponents in two seasons; with a notable win against #1 overall Oklahoma in
2011.
Based on strength of schedule(s) and performance, Mallett not
only played the tougher schedule, but also performed the best,
statistically. From a win-loss record perspective, Mallett is .500,
while the other QBs are well below (Gabbert is .250 and Locker
is .375).
Mallett+1
One important aspect to point out is that all three quarterbacks
play in balanced offensive schemes. If you isolate statistics, you
could arguably include quarterback Case Keenum. In 2009
(before injury), Houston & Keenum passed the ball 65% of the
time. If you look strictly at play call selection, you will see Mallett,
Locker and Gabbert play in offenses that either run more or have
a relatively close play selection.
The following represents, in percentages, the total play call
selections for each team in 2009 & 2010:
Arkansas (2010) - 52.4% Pass / 47.6% Run
Arkansas (2009) - 52.6% Pass / 47.4% Run
Missouri (2010) - 52.7% Pass / 47.3% Run
Missouri (2009) - 51.2% Pass / 48.8% Run
Washington (2010) - 43.9% Pass / 56.1% Run ; Washington (2009) - 50.0% Pass / 50.0% Run. As you can see from the percentages, all three
schools ran very balanced offenses. Given the balance shared by all three, Mallett's stats are again, far and away better than both Locker and
Gabbert.
Mallett +1
Key Situational Statistical Analysis:
Aside from the raw statistics (Touchdowns, Interceptions, Yardage, etc) we can dive deeper into the on-field play scenarios. The Key
Situational stats we looked at were 1st, 2nd and 3rd down pass efficiency; QB quarter-by-quarter performance and Redzone passing
efficiency.
Based on the situational breakdown, all three quarterbacks have shown tremendous production over the past two seasons. All things
being equal, two of the most significant statistics we can isolate are 3rd Down stats/efficiency and Redzone stats/efficiency. Reason
being, the ability to convert on 3rd down insinuates offensive drives are being kept alive. For obvious reasons, Redzone efficiency is
critical, as the ability to convert and/or score on a shortened field is paramount; especially at the NFL level.
To summarize the stats above, all three quarterbacks are extremely efficient in every aspect. On 3rd Downs, Mallett, Gabbert and
Locker all have 60% (or higher) completion percentages when passing - a significant factor when it comes to conversions. Gabbert
graded the highest with a completion rate of 69% in 2010. A key note to keep in mind is that not all completions resulted in first-downs.
But, completing nearly 70% of your passes on a given down gives you a good chance of converting. Gabbert +1
When isolating Redzone stats, Mallett blew away the competition. In two seasons, Mallett passed for 28 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. This
nearly matched the production of both Gabbert (17 : 4) and Locker (12 : 9) together: 29 touchdowns to 13 interceptions combined. Mallett +1
Accuracy:
As any football fan knows, accuracy is arguably the most important trait an NFL Quarterback must have (in conjunction with decision making).
To gauge accuracy, we looked at each quarterback's completion percentage, completions over 15+ yards and completions over 25+ yards. The
ability to throw the "deep-ball" does not automatically define a quarterback as accurate, but does give an indication of ball-placement ability at
further distances (implied accuracy).
Overall, all three quarterbacks have been relatively accurate. In two seasons, the average completion percentage for each quarterback is:
Mallet - 60.25%, Gabbert - 61.15% and Locker - 56.8%. With the exception of Locker, both other quarterbacks completed an impressive 60% or
more of their passes.
Deep Ball - No other quarterback has completed more "long-balls" in the past two seasons than Ryan Mallett. Mallett has 79 completed passes
of 25(+) yards or more. By comparison, Gabbert has completed 59 total while Locker has completed 45 total. Additionally, Mallett also holds the
record (for the 3-man comparison) for most completions of 15(+) yards. Mallett has completed 193 passes of 15 yards or more, Gabbert has
134 total and Locker has 111 total. To summarize, no other quarterback has thrown more passes of 15 yards or more, in the FBS in the past
two seasons, than Mallett.
Mallett+1
Conclusions:
Concluding thoughts. 1) Based on statistics, Ryan Mallett has proven to be the most productive; 2) Based on performances against top-rated
pass defenses and BCS ranked teams, Mallett has the best win-loss record; and 3) Mallett seems to be the most efficient and effective QB in
the Redzone and when throwing the "deep" ball.
One of the biggest reasons we pay close attention to statistics is because numbers & on-field performances DON'T LIE! As the NFL draft gets
closer, many sports analyst will focus too much on player "mechanics" and combine results. We are not negating the importance of either, but
rather showing the significance of on-field performance. If you look at last years comparison between Sam Bradford & Jimmy Clausen, we were
able to logically conclude that Bradford was the better quarterback. Although a projection, that conclusion is holding true as Bradford is proving
why he was deserving of the #1 overall draft selection. If our in-depth analysis holds true, Mallett should be the #1 overall quarterback in the
2011 draft class.
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