Uncovering the Worst Draft Position - 4/1/2010
A recent article published by ESPN.com outlining the troubles with picking #7 overall, has prompted drafhuddle.com
to uncover the worst draft position in the first round. The blog post focuses on the Cleveland Browns picking #7
overall and the problems (historically) associated with drafting at this position. Interestingly enough, players selected
seventh overall have struggled in their careers. Some of the more recent players are: Troy Williamson (2005),
Michael Huff (2006) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009). Additionally, the financial obligation and value is noteworthy. In
2009, the #7 overall pick (Heyward-Bey) received a five-year deal worth $38.25 million. The point differential (NFL
Draft Value Chart)) is also a large factor considering there is a 1500 point difference between the 1st and 7th pick
and only a 910 point difference between the 7th and 32nd pick. Now, the point differential is all relative when taking
other draft picks into consideration - but it is important to mention that the drop in talent level and salary increases
play a significant part.
What drafthuddle.com wants to figure out
is: what is the worst draft position in the
first round? Taking into consideration all
32 picks, we will take a historical look at
each pick and determine draft busts,
inflated salaries and the value lost per
the NFL Draft Value Chart. We will look
at the drafts from the past decade: 2000
through 2009.
At first glance, one could argue that the worst draft position is already predetermined: The #1 overall pick. The first
pick requires a team to negotiate an extremely high contract. Paying this type of salary could hinder a team financially
for years. The added stress and exhaustive scouting/analysis can be overwhelming, as many times the #1 overall
pick becomes the focal point of the franchise both on and off the field. Additionally, drafting #1 overall (excluding
trades) means your team had the worst record in the NFL and there is a pretty good chance your team is rebuilding.
On the other hand, the first overall pick allows a team to conceivably draft the best overall player in the draft,
regardless of need. Also, if another team is willing to trade up, the first pick carries a VERY steep price. In 2004, the
San Diego Chargers drafted QB-Eli Manning #1 overall and traded him to the Giants for QB-Phillip Rivers who was
drafted #4 overall. The trade required the Giants to give San Diego their 2004 - 3rd round pick, and 2005 1st & 5th
round picks. This is an example of what is needed to obtain the #1 overall pick. With that, the #1 pick has its
advantages and disadvantages, but is not the worst draft position.
From 2000 through 2009, drafthuddle.com has narrowed it down to three draft positions: 6, 7 and 22. See chart:
These charts show each player drafted with their respective pick since 2000. The chart does contain some players
that have excelled at the NFL level. Most notably are: Richard Seymour, Thomas Jones, Adrian Peterson and Percy
Harvin. However, the majority of the players have failed to make an impact or prove why they were drafted in the first
round. Of the players selected since 2000, the 22nd pick has produced the worst players. Picks 6 & 7 are considered
bigger "misses" considering the financial obligations. But, based on player performance (or lack thereof), the 22nd
draft selection has produced the least productive players. Why?
It is safe to say that with 32 draft picks, the first round is broken down into quadrants: Picks 1-8; Picks 9 -16; Picks 17
- 24 and Picks 25-32. Starting with pick 17, many draft analysts believe this is where the first round separates. The
"cream of the crop" are often chosen (if BPA is considered) in the top 15. After this, teams may settle for 2-3 players
as opposed to targeting that one prospect. Reason being is that the draft has become somewhat choreographed.
Entering the draft, many teams/analyst know who they are going to draft and the
picks fall like clock work. After pick 15, it becomes harder to predict a position when
BPA, need and reaches all come into play. So, teams typically have 2-3 prospects
they "fall back" on if their prospect is not available. Because of this, the pool of
prospects becomes cloudy. Teams panic, trade up, draft a project or reach for a
player they might be able to get later because that particular position is being drafted
at a rapid rate: Reference the 2008 NFL Draft and notice the transactions that took
place to draft offensive tackles. With that, pick 22 (and all other picks after) falls into
that category. For instance, in 2007 the Cleveland Browns traded back into the 1st
round to draft Brady Quinn. The team panicked. The Browns had Derek Anderson
coming off a solid season and noticed that Quinn had fallen to a position they were
willing to reach for. Quinn is no longer with the Cleveland Browns.
If history repeats, it would be wise for a franchise to A) not reach for a player at pick 22nd or B) trade out of the
position. Outside of Percy Harvin, the 22nd pick may resemble a "Madden" type curse for franchises drafting in that
position. Hopefully a GM is able to read this and make a sound decision that will help their franchise. Also just for fun,
while conducting our analysis, we discovered the most prosperous draft positions:
- Draft Huddle
A recent article published by ESPN.com outlining the troubles with picking #7 overall, has prompted drafhuddle.com
to uncover the worst draft position in the first round. The blog post focuses on the Cleveland Browns picking #7
overall and the problems (historically) associated with drafting at this position. Interestingly enough, players selected
seventh overall have struggled in their careers. Some of the more recent players are: Troy Williamson (2005),
Michael Huff (2006) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009). Additionally, the financial obligation and value is noteworthy. In
2009, the #7 overall pick (Heyward-Bey) received a five-year deal worth $38.25 million. The point differential (NFL
Draft Value Chart)) is also a large factor considering there is a 1500 point difference between the 1st and 7th pick
and only a 910 point difference between the 7th and 32nd pick. Now, the point differential is all relative when taking
other draft picks into consideration - but it is important to mention that the drop in talent level and salary increases
play a significant part.
What drafthuddle.com wants to figure out
is: what is the worst draft position in the
first round? Taking into consideration all
32 picks, we will take a historical look at
each pick and determine draft busts,
inflated salaries and the value lost per
the NFL Draft Value Chart. We will look
at the drafts from the past decade: 2000
through 2009.
At first glance, one could argue that the worst draft position is already predetermined: The #1 overall pick. The first
pick requires a team to negotiate an extremely high contract. Paying this type of salary could hinder a team financially
for years. The added stress and exhaustive scouting/analysis can be overwhelming, as many times the #1 overall
pick becomes the focal point of the franchise both on and off the field. Additionally, drafting #1 overall (excluding
trades) means your team had the worst record in the NFL and there is a pretty good chance your team is rebuilding.
On the other hand, the first overall pick allows a team to conceivably draft the best overall player in the draft,
regardless of need. Also, if another team is willing to trade up, the first pick carries a VERY steep price. In 2004, the
San Diego Chargers drafted QB-Eli Manning #1 overall and traded him to the Giants for QB-Phillip Rivers who was
drafted #4 overall. The trade required the Giants to give San Diego their 2004 - 3rd round pick, and 2005 1st & 5th
round picks. This is an example of what is needed to obtain the #1 overall pick. With that, the #1 pick has its
advantages and disadvantages, but is not the worst draft position.
From 2000 through 2009, drafthuddle.com has narrowed it down to three draft positions: 6, 7 and 22. See chart:
These charts show each player drafted with their respective pick since 2000. The chart does contain some players
that have excelled at the NFL level. Most notably are: Richard Seymour, Thomas Jones, Adrian Peterson and Percy
Harvin. However, the majority of the players have failed to make an impact or prove why they were drafted in the first
round. Of the players selected since 2000, the 22nd pick has produced the worst players. Picks 6 & 7 are considered
bigger "misses" considering the financial obligations. But, based on player performance (or lack thereof), the 22nd
draft selection has produced the least productive players. Why?
It is safe to say that with 32 draft picks, the first round is broken down into quadrants: Picks 1-8; Picks 9 -16; Picks 17
- 24 and Picks 25-32. Starting with pick 17, many draft analysts believe this is where the first round separates. The
"cream of the crop" are often chosen (if BPA is considered) in the top 15. After this, teams may settle for 2-3 players
as opposed to targeting that one prospect. Reason being is that the draft has become somewhat choreographed.
Entering the draft, many teams/analyst know who they are going to draft and the
picks fall like clock work. After pick 15, it becomes harder to predict a position when
BPA, need and reaches all come into play. So, teams typically have 2-3 prospects
they "fall back" on if their prospect is not available. Because of this, the pool of
prospects becomes cloudy. Teams panic, trade up, draft a project or reach for a
player they might be able to get later because that particular position is being drafted
at a rapid rate: Reference the 2008 NFL Draft and notice the transactions that took
place to draft offensive tackles. With that, pick 22 (and all other picks after) falls into
that category. For instance, in 2007 the Cleveland Browns traded back into the 1st
round to draft Brady Quinn. The team panicked. The Browns had Derek Anderson
coming off a solid season and noticed that Quinn had fallen to a position they were
willing to reach for. Quinn is no longer with the Cleveland Browns.
If history repeats, it would be wise for a franchise to A) not reach for a player at pick 22nd or B) trade out of the
position. Outside of Percy Harvin, the 22nd pick may resemble a "Madden" type curse for franchises drafting in that
position. Hopefully a GM is able to read this and make a sound decision that will help their franchise. Also just for fun,
while conducting our analysis, we discovered the most prosperous draft positions:
- Draft Huddle
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