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Affects of Team Coaching Changes on the
NFL Draft: 12/23/09
NFL Draft: 12/23/09
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With the 2009 NFL season coming to a close, comes rumors and media investigations of possible head coaching
vacancies. Although speculation is rampant throughout the season, nothing truly becomes evident until the after week
17. The list of potential coaches in the “Hot Seat” is created year after year when below average records are achieved
and coaches have overstayed their tenure. Drafthuddle.com takes a further look at some of the potential coaching
changes and explains the impact on the upcoming NFL draft.
Reports have indicated the following head coaching positions maybe vacant at the end of 2009: Washington, Dallas,
Carolina, Oakland, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago and Jacksonville. The list of available coaches being targeted is very
impressive, including big-time names such as: Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, and Marty Shottenheimer. The
four coaches alone have amassed career record totals of: 582-383 (60% winning percentage) and four (4) combined
Superbowl Championships. Although only speculation, the addition of any of the aforementioned coaches to a franchise
would constitute immediate and significant personnel and schematic changes.
Drafthuddle.com has isolated one rumor in particular to illustrate the impact of a head coaching change to a franchise.
The Carolina Panthers fell considerably below pre-season expectations in 2009. Having gone 12-4 (NFC South
Champions) in 2008, the Panthers are track to an 8-8 record, at best. The team entered the 2009 season with 21 of 22
starters back on both sides of the ball. The predictions poured in for another division title repeat and first-round bye.
Terrible play-calling coupled with horrendous quarterback play and a new defensive system installed, caused the
Panthers to struggle the majority of the season on both sides of the ball. In eight (8) seasons as Panthers Head Coach,
John Fox has failed to produce back-to-back winning seasons. The inconsistency combined with the detrimental loyalty to
certain players (quarterback Jake Delhomme) has put John Fox’s coaching term in question. Speculation has escalated
that Bill Cowher could be the front-runner to succeed Fox in Carolina. With Cowher comes dramatic change to the
Carolina franchise in all aspects including personnel, schemes, and philosophy.
Bill Cowher is known for being a tough, no-nonsense coach that thrived off a pounding run game and dominating
defense. Philosophically speaking, this is the type of team John Fox has tried to create in Carolina, having invested
several first round draft picks on the offensive line and stable of running backs. Schematically, the defensive side of the
ball would endure an overhaul. Currently, Fox and company run a 4-3 style defense, rarely blitzing relying on the front-
four to produce pressure. Cowher on the other hand is known for running a 3-4 defense, recognized for heavy blitzes
and the ability to pressure. How will this change in coaching schemes affect off season acquisitions and the 2010 NFL
Draft?
First, we examine the personnel changes Carolina would eventually make in order to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4
defense. What makes a great 3-4 defense? The 3-4 alignment is characterized by a larger nose tackle anchoring the
middle and two larger outside linebackers (typically converted defensive ends). The prototype nose tackle is usually in
the 325(+) pound category and can handle double-teams comfortably. The nose tackle position is essential to the 3-4
alignment, as his performance allows the remaining front six, in particular the two inside linebackers to react freely. In
addition to the nose tackle, the 3-4 is also characterized by having two larger, athletic linebackers often referred to as
“tweeners” (defensive ends too small to play a three-down technique, but fast and athletic enough to convert to a
linebacker). Playing more of a two-point stance defensive end technique, the outside linebackers need to be able to rush
with aggressiveness, contain the edges, and occasionally drop into coverage. Taking a look around the league, the
average size of a nose tackle in 2009 is: 6’3/ 330 lbs. The average outside linebacker size is: 6’2 – 260 lbs, with nearly
50% of all 3-4 outside linebackers being converted defensive ends (“tweeners”).
Carolina’s current roster making the transition:
After establishing the key components of a 3-4 alignment, drafthuddle.com took a look at Carolina’s current roster (front
seven) to determine which players could successfully make the transition.
Carolina Depth Chart: 4-3 scheme – front seven
DE – Julius Peppers, Tyler Brayton, Charles Johnson, Everett Brown, Hilee Taylor
DT – Maake Keomoatu, Hollis Thomas, Damion Lewis, Tank Tyler, Nick Hayden
OLB – Thomas Davis, Na’il Diggs, James Anderson, Landon Johnson
MLB – Jon Beason, Dan Conner
One of the key questions regarding Carolina’s current personnel is: can Jon Beason (6’0, 237 lbs) and Thomas Davis (6’
0, 240 lbs) convert successfully to 3-4 inside linebackers? Much of Beason’s and Davis’ success is attributed to their
supporting front four, especially the two interior defensive tackles. Typically speaking, the 4-3 defensive tackle is
responsible for keeping blockers off the linebackers, period. By doing so, it allows the 2nd-level, (linebacking corp) to fly
to the ball freely. However, in a 3-4 alignment, inside linebackers do not have the luxury of having two “defensive guards”
in front of them, but rather have to take on opposing linemen head-on. Beason and Davis could conceivably do the job,
but their size and play-type is much like former Jets linebacker: Jonathan Vilma, who struggled at times (due to his lack of
size) and is much more suited in a 4-3 base.
The outside conversions would prove to be the more intriguing given the personnel. Julius Peppers (an athletic freak)
has publicly stated he would prefer to play in a 3-4 as an OLB. At 6’7, 285 lbs he is better suited as a defensive end, but
given his speed (4.6 40-dash) and athleticism, he would be an absolute nightmare off the edge. Opposite Peppers,
current defensive ends Everett Brown and Hilee Taylor have the size, but their success would take considerable time and
coaching.
Looking at the 3-down linemen, Carolina currently possesses several potential Nose Tackles in Keomoatu (6’5, 355 lbs),
Thomas (6’0, 340 lbs), and Tyler (6’2, 325 lbs). Both Keomoatu and Tyler have experience as nose tackles while playing
with Baltimore and Kansas City. Personnel problems would arise when filling both defensive end positions. Charles
Johnson (6’2, 272 lbs) and Tyler Brayton (6’6, 275 lbs) are somewhat smaller for the 3-4. 3-4 defensive ends average
300(+) pounds and have to be able to take on offensive tackles head-on, cover both “B” and “C” gaps at all times, and
contain the outside. Many 4-3 DT’s have made successful transitions to 3-4 DE’s, which could prove well for current DT-
Damion Lewis. Lewis is a wide-bodied DT, but has the size (305 lbs) and immovability often looked for in a 3-4 end.
Effects, if any, on the Draft?
Currently, Carolina needs to find replacements and add depth at the following positions: QB, WR, DT, and CB. Given the
defensive mentality of a coach like Cowher, the defensive side will be addressed first – especially if a defensive
transformation is sought out. Cowher is responsible for drafting and developing linebackers such as:
Levon Kirkland* Mike Vrabel* Kendrell Bell *denotes Pro Bowler
Chad Brown* Jason Gildon* Clark Haggan
Earl Holmes Joey Porter* Larry Foote
In addition to the linebackers, he was able to draft and develop Aaron Smith, Brenston Buckner, and Casey Hampton to
anchor his 3-4 defense. Considering the powerful run game Carolina already possesses, a coach like Cowher may forgo
drafting a replacement for Delhomme, such as Tebow, Pike, or another prospect. Additionally, the much needed number
two receiver opposite Smith may get overlooked as well.
In order to make a 3-4 defense work, players need to be developed properly at an early stage in their career. As NFL
players progress season after season perfecting their respective positions, it gets harder to break away from habit to
learn a different style of play. Grooming a young, impressionable athlete from stage one has proven to produce the best
results - if done properly. Demarcus Ware, Lamar Woodley, and Shaun Phillips are prime examples of converting college
defensive ends to outside linebackers successfully. However, some players have failed to make the transition such as:
Kamerion Wimbley, Manny Lawson, Betrand Berry, and Vernon Gholston.
Currently, drafthuddle.com considers the Quarterback position the most significant need for the Carolina Panthers. If the
team changes defensive schemes, that this need will ultimately change. The draft strategy and off-season personnel
additions and subtractions will be affected and require a closer evaluation of what the team will need to successfully
transition to a 3-4 defense. Considering the Panthers do not have a first-round draft pick (traded away in 2009 for San
Francisco 2nd round pick and used on Defensive End - Everette Brown), they will need to use their early 2nd round pick
on a player that will make the biggest impact, immediately.
Our prediction at drafthuddle.com is that with the addition of Bill Cowher and his 3-4 defense, the Panthers will most likely
use their first pick in the 2010 NFL draft (second round) on a defensive player who will anchor the defense. This move
will be strategically made much like the Kansas City Chiefs taking Tyson Jackson (DE-LSU) third overall in the 2009 draft
to build the teams new 3-4 scheme around, along with Green Bay taking B.J. Raji (18th overall) and Denver taking Robert
Ayers (18th overall). All three teams (Kansas City, Green Bay, and Denver) made a defensive change from a 4-3
alignment to a 3-4 from the 2008 season to the 2009 seasons.
Possible drafting scenarios in 2010:
Current coaching staff stays:
1) Tim Tebow (2nd Round) - Quarterback, Florida - Tebow will the be the eventual replacement for Delhomme, possibly
sooner than later. Tebow needs to develop into a "game-manager" and keep the offense in manageable 3rd down
situations. The running game will help Tebow transition into the NFL and not force the rookie to make the big play or big
mistake.
2) Rico McCoy (3rd Round) - Outside Linebacker, Tennessee - an eventual replacement for Na'il Diggs and an overall
upgrade to the current roster position. McCoy fits Ron Meeks' cover two scheme and prototype linebacker, being fast
and undersized.
Bill Cowher addition along with defensive change:
1) George Selvie (2nd Round) - DE/OLB, South Florida - Selvie has the size (6'4, 247) and necessary speed to make the
transition from a college defensive end to an NFL outside linebacker. Selvie also has the frame to pack on more pounds
and the athleticism to make the change seamlessly.
2) Brian Price (3rd Round) - DT/DE, UCLA - Price is stout at 6'2, 305 lbs and would be used as a defensive end. His
lateral mobility up and down the line of scrimmage would make his arrival key to the success of a 3-4 defense.
Based on our evaluation we can assume that with a coaching change and new defensive philosophy comes change to the
teams roster and draft strategy. Teams changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 look to draft key components of their defense early,
which is evident by last seasons draft. As coaching changes become more evident during the NFL off season,
drafthuddle.com and its mock drafts will change accordingly to emphasize and reflect coaching changes.
- Draft Huddle
vacancies. Although speculation is rampant throughout the season, nothing truly becomes evident until the after week
17. The list of potential coaches in the “Hot Seat” is created year after year when below average records are achieved
and coaches have overstayed their tenure. Drafthuddle.com takes a further look at some of the potential coaching
changes and explains the impact on the upcoming NFL draft.
Reports have indicated the following head coaching positions maybe vacant at the end of 2009: Washington, Dallas,
Carolina, Oakland, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago and Jacksonville. The list of available coaches being targeted is very
impressive, including big-time names such as: Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, and Marty Shottenheimer. The
four coaches alone have amassed career record totals of: 582-383 (60% winning percentage) and four (4) combined
Superbowl Championships. Although only speculation, the addition of any of the aforementioned coaches to a franchise
would constitute immediate and significant personnel and schematic changes.
Drafthuddle.com has isolated one rumor in particular to illustrate the impact of a head coaching change to a franchise.
The Carolina Panthers fell considerably below pre-season expectations in 2009. Having gone 12-4 (NFC South
Champions) in 2008, the Panthers are track to an 8-8 record, at best. The team entered the 2009 season with 21 of 22
starters back on both sides of the ball. The predictions poured in for another division title repeat and first-round bye.
Terrible play-calling coupled with horrendous quarterback play and a new defensive system installed, caused the
Panthers to struggle the majority of the season on both sides of the ball. In eight (8) seasons as Panthers Head Coach,
John Fox has failed to produce back-to-back winning seasons. The inconsistency combined with the detrimental loyalty to
certain players (quarterback Jake Delhomme) has put John Fox’s coaching term in question. Speculation has escalated
that Bill Cowher could be the front-runner to succeed Fox in Carolina. With Cowher comes dramatic change to the
Carolina franchise in all aspects including personnel, schemes, and philosophy.
Bill Cowher is known for being a tough, no-nonsense coach that thrived off a pounding run game and dominating
defense. Philosophically speaking, this is the type of team John Fox has tried to create in Carolina, having invested
several first round draft picks on the offensive line and stable of running backs. Schematically, the defensive side of the
ball would endure an overhaul. Currently, Fox and company run a 4-3 style defense, rarely blitzing relying on the front-
four to produce pressure. Cowher on the other hand is known for running a 3-4 defense, recognized for heavy blitzes
and the ability to pressure. How will this change in coaching schemes affect off season acquisitions and the 2010 NFL
Draft?
First, we examine the personnel changes Carolina would eventually make in order to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4
defense. What makes a great 3-4 defense? The 3-4 alignment is characterized by a larger nose tackle anchoring the
middle and two larger outside linebackers (typically converted defensive ends). The prototype nose tackle is usually in
the 325(+) pound category and can handle double-teams comfortably. The nose tackle position is essential to the 3-4
alignment, as his performance allows the remaining front six, in particular the two inside linebackers to react freely. In
addition to the nose tackle, the 3-4 is also characterized by having two larger, athletic linebackers often referred to as
“tweeners” (defensive ends too small to play a three-down technique, but fast and athletic enough to convert to a
linebacker). Playing more of a two-point stance defensive end technique, the outside linebackers need to be able to rush
with aggressiveness, contain the edges, and occasionally drop into coverage. Taking a look around the league, the
average size of a nose tackle in 2009 is: 6’3/ 330 lbs. The average outside linebacker size is: 6’2 – 260 lbs, with nearly
50% of all 3-4 outside linebackers being converted defensive ends (“tweeners”).
Carolina’s current roster making the transition:
After establishing the key components of a 3-4 alignment, drafthuddle.com took a look at Carolina’s current roster (front
seven) to determine which players could successfully make the transition.
Carolina Depth Chart: 4-3 scheme – front seven
DE – Julius Peppers, Tyler Brayton, Charles Johnson, Everett Brown, Hilee Taylor
DT – Maake Keomoatu, Hollis Thomas, Damion Lewis, Tank Tyler, Nick Hayden
OLB – Thomas Davis, Na’il Diggs, James Anderson, Landon Johnson
MLB – Jon Beason, Dan Conner
One of the key questions regarding Carolina’s current personnel is: can Jon Beason (6’0, 237 lbs) and Thomas Davis (6’
0, 240 lbs) convert successfully to 3-4 inside linebackers? Much of Beason’s and Davis’ success is attributed to their
supporting front four, especially the two interior defensive tackles. Typically speaking, the 4-3 defensive tackle is
responsible for keeping blockers off the linebackers, period. By doing so, it allows the 2nd-level, (linebacking corp) to fly
to the ball freely. However, in a 3-4 alignment, inside linebackers do not have the luxury of having two “defensive guards”
in front of them, but rather have to take on opposing linemen head-on. Beason and Davis could conceivably do the job,
but their size and play-type is much like former Jets linebacker: Jonathan Vilma, who struggled at times (due to his lack of
size) and is much more suited in a 4-3 base.
The outside conversions would prove to be the more intriguing given the personnel. Julius Peppers (an athletic freak)
has publicly stated he would prefer to play in a 3-4 as an OLB. At 6’7, 285 lbs he is better suited as a defensive end, but
given his speed (4.6 40-dash) and athleticism, he would be an absolute nightmare off the edge. Opposite Peppers,
current defensive ends Everett Brown and Hilee Taylor have the size, but their success would take considerable time and
coaching.
Looking at the 3-down linemen, Carolina currently possesses several potential Nose Tackles in Keomoatu (6’5, 355 lbs),
Thomas (6’0, 340 lbs), and Tyler (6’2, 325 lbs). Both Keomoatu and Tyler have experience as nose tackles while playing
with Baltimore and Kansas City. Personnel problems would arise when filling both defensive end positions. Charles
Johnson (6’2, 272 lbs) and Tyler Brayton (6’6, 275 lbs) are somewhat smaller for the 3-4. 3-4 defensive ends average
300(+) pounds and have to be able to take on offensive tackles head-on, cover both “B” and “C” gaps at all times, and
contain the outside. Many 4-3 DT’s have made successful transitions to 3-4 DE’s, which could prove well for current DT-
Damion Lewis. Lewis is a wide-bodied DT, but has the size (305 lbs) and immovability often looked for in a 3-4 end.
Effects, if any, on the Draft?
Currently, Carolina needs to find replacements and add depth at the following positions: QB, WR, DT, and CB. Given the
defensive mentality of a coach like Cowher, the defensive side will be addressed first – especially if a defensive
transformation is sought out. Cowher is responsible for drafting and developing linebackers such as:
Levon Kirkland* Mike Vrabel* Kendrell Bell *denotes Pro Bowler
Chad Brown* Jason Gildon* Clark Haggan
Earl Holmes Joey Porter* Larry Foote
In addition to the linebackers, he was able to draft and develop Aaron Smith, Brenston Buckner, and Casey Hampton to
anchor his 3-4 defense. Considering the powerful run game Carolina already possesses, a coach like Cowher may forgo
drafting a replacement for Delhomme, such as Tebow, Pike, or another prospect. Additionally, the much needed number
two receiver opposite Smith may get overlooked as well.
In order to make a 3-4 defense work, players need to be developed properly at an early stage in their career. As NFL
players progress season after season perfecting their respective positions, it gets harder to break away from habit to
learn a different style of play. Grooming a young, impressionable athlete from stage one has proven to produce the best
results - if done properly. Demarcus Ware, Lamar Woodley, and Shaun Phillips are prime examples of converting college
defensive ends to outside linebackers successfully. However, some players have failed to make the transition such as:
Kamerion Wimbley, Manny Lawson, Betrand Berry, and Vernon Gholston.
Currently, drafthuddle.com considers the Quarterback position the most significant need for the Carolina Panthers. If the
team changes defensive schemes, that this need will ultimately change. The draft strategy and off-season personnel
additions and subtractions will be affected and require a closer evaluation of what the team will need to successfully
transition to a 3-4 defense. Considering the Panthers do not have a first-round draft pick (traded away in 2009 for San
Francisco 2nd round pick and used on Defensive End - Everette Brown), they will need to use their early 2nd round pick
on a player that will make the biggest impact, immediately.
Our prediction at drafthuddle.com is that with the addition of Bill Cowher and his 3-4 defense, the Panthers will most likely
use their first pick in the 2010 NFL draft (second round) on a defensive player who will anchor the defense. This move
will be strategically made much like the Kansas City Chiefs taking Tyson Jackson (DE-LSU) third overall in the 2009 draft
to build the teams new 3-4 scheme around, along with Green Bay taking B.J. Raji (18th overall) and Denver taking Robert
Ayers (18th overall). All three teams (Kansas City, Green Bay, and Denver) made a defensive change from a 4-3
alignment to a 3-4 from the 2008 season to the 2009 seasons.
Possible drafting scenarios in 2010:
Current coaching staff stays:
1) Tim Tebow (2nd Round) - Quarterback, Florida - Tebow will the be the eventual replacement for Delhomme, possibly
sooner than later. Tebow needs to develop into a "game-manager" and keep the offense in manageable 3rd down
situations. The running game will help Tebow transition into the NFL and not force the rookie to make the big play or big
mistake.
2) Rico McCoy (3rd Round) - Outside Linebacker, Tennessee - an eventual replacement for Na'il Diggs and an overall
upgrade to the current roster position. McCoy fits Ron Meeks' cover two scheme and prototype linebacker, being fast
and undersized.
Bill Cowher addition along with defensive change:
1) George Selvie (2nd Round) - DE/OLB, South Florida - Selvie has the size (6'4, 247) and necessary speed to make the
transition from a college defensive end to an NFL outside linebacker. Selvie also has the frame to pack on more pounds
and the athleticism to make the change seamlessly.
2) Brian Price (3rd Round) - DT/DE, UCLA - Price is stout at 6'2, 305 lbs and would be used as a defensive end. His
lateral mobility up and down the line of scrimmage would make his arrival key to the success of a 3-4 defense.
Based on our evaluation we can assume that with a coaching change and new defensive philosophy comes change to the
teams roster and draft strategy. Teams changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 look to draft key components of their defense early,
which is evident by last seasons draft. As coaching changes become more evident during the NFL off season,
drafthuddle.com and its mock drafts will change accordingly to emphasize and reflect coaching changes.
- Draft Huddle
The illustration shows the base 3-4
alignment. A "NT" positioned directly
over the center and flanked by two
defensive ends positioned over the
opposing tackles. Four (4)
linebackers with two positioned
inside and two outside.
alignment. A "NT" positioned directly
over the center and flanked by two
defensive ends positioned over the
opposing tackles. Four (4)
linebackers with two positioned
inside and two outside.
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